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A Two Horse Race, But Who Wins? 

Our pre-election considerations continue with a focus on a 'new' constituency.


Dundee earned the title of "the Yes City" back in 2014 with the biggest majority in the country for independence on a huge turnout.


A lot has happened since then, not least being told by the two main Westminster parties that there will be no second referendum on extending Scottish democracy. 


Traditionally Dundee has had two Westminster seats, East and West. Following recent boundary changes most of the city is now Dundee Central. The eastern housing schemes, much to their surprise, being lumped in with the leafy suburbs and parts of coastal Angus to form the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry constituency. 


So strictly speaking all those standing in Dundee Central are standing in a new constituency. Ten candidates have put themselves forward for election this time. This might suggest a high degree of choice but if discussions on the street are anything to go by that is not how it feels. With less than a week to go many remain undecided. If any of you are still considering 'political betting' in spite of all the scandalous behaviour we've seen in recent weeks, a good bet would be a punt on a low turnout. 


Diminished turnout might be surprising - at the 2019 general election the Dundee West vote held up at 64.5%. Dundee West (not technically the same seat) saw Chris Law receive 22,355 votes to Labour’s 10,096.  But Dundee has a large number of areas associated with the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation's ‘worst figures'. Many people are despondent - but some are angry, that anger largely being directed at the SNP controlled council and the SNP government. 


Dundee Central, on paper, is a safe SNP seat. However Labour's candidate Richard McCready is not playing it like that. Richard, a long-time councillor - defeated at the last council elections - is working hard. He is pushing on the record of the SNP at both governmental levels and challenging the record of the SNP candidate Chris Law. Chris was, until Rishi Sunak's announcement, the MP for Dundee West. Labour assert he has been less visible in some quarters than local needs demand. Law of course challenges this and points to Starmer's rightward drift. 


Amongst the other candidates are Liberal Democrat Dundee councillor Daniel Coleman and the Tory Aberdeen councillor Emma Farquhar. There are also Jim McFarlane of the Trade Union and Socialist Coalition (TUSC) and Raymond Mennie of the Workers Party of Great Britain. Neither are likely to make a breakthrough in spite of Jim being a known Unison activist and Raymond ‘benefiting' from association with George Galloway's party. The Family Party, Alba, Reform and an independent make up the rest.


So in spite of the long ballot paper we are given a two horse race, a product of first-past-the-post (ironically both leading candidates support proportional representation). Some pollsters suggest we should stay up to watch the results. But will we actually see change and promises and policies enacted? The chances do not look good. This pessimism is not a suggestion that either of the leading candidates are dishonest, but a recognition of the constraints and pressures that our representatives face when they find themselves in office - and problems with the limitations of our democratic culture.


Looking carefully at the results on 5 July may provide some clues about how fixed people are to voting for particular political parties. Voters appear to feel that getting rid of the the Tories is essential. But despondency and anger will continue without greater democracy and action on tackling structural inequality. This is the real challenge for whoever becomes the new constituency’s MP.

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