Thoughts on politics, science and the environment as the Swinney / Forbes administration begins.
On the same day that the new First Minister John Swinney announced his cabinet appointments, news reports underlined the depth of the climate crisis. A Guardian survey of hundreds of experts showed that 77% of them believe global temperatures will reach at least 2.5C above preindustrial levels, a devastating degree of heating … 42% think that it will be more than 3C.
The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Service set out evidence that the world's oceans have broken temperature records every single day over the past year (bizarrely, the BBC Radio 4 coverage of this talked of ‘records being smashed’ in the same tones that they would use to report a sports tournament).
So – what contribution will the new Scottish government make to addressing these urgent issues? There is continuity in terms of the SNP members in two key posts: Màiri McAllan still holds responsibility for Net Zero and Energy and Mairi Gougeon continues to focus on Rural Affairs, Land Reform and Islands.
But with the Scottish Greens no longer in the administration, following the crisis in political relationships triggered by the acknowledgement that the government was not on course to meet key environmental targets, and with responsibility for the economy transferred to Kate Forbes, many people fear that there will be a lessening of focus and determination on climate issues. Environmentalists are concerned that there will be pressure from right wingers to push back on and even oppose environmental targets.
These fears need to be taken seriously. The aim must be to construct alliances that allow for right-wing rhetoric to be recognised and challenged, and for practical alternatives to be advanced to any simplistic assertions of the ‘need for economic growth’ and to policies which prioritise ‘jobs’ and ‘GDP’ regardless of the environmental impact.
Reactions from the green movement suggest that there will be concentrated lobbying on the Scottish government: campaigning activity from environmental organisations and social movements outwith Holyrood is likely to become a growing requirement of making legislative progress. Effective lobbying will need to be clear and insistent – but effective ‘pressurisation’ of government also needs to honestly register the balance of forces, and to recognise, positively, that the new administration continues to require support from the Greens – and that there are many people genuinely committed to green policies within the SNP.
At present, perhaps it is understandable that there is a degree of one-sidedness in the way some people are talking of these issues. But environmental organisations should take account of the broader context and the practical challenges facing those who genuinely wish to promote environmental policies … and avoid such intemperate suggestions as that the Scottish Government has reneged on the Paris Agreement entirely - this is not the case.
It's useful to acknowledge that, when she spoke to the Scottish Parliament in April, McAllan aimed to set out an agenda to respond to the Climate Change Committee report on the failings of Scotland’s environment policy (the CCC is an independent, statutory body which advises the UK and devolved governments on emissions targets and on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for and adapting to the impacts of climate change).
McAllan’s approach could lead to a focus on what is attainable rather than an overambitious target (it is to be hoped such work will be developed by whoever picks up her role during McAllan’s upcoming Mat Leave). It could also lead to steps to address the climate emergency being mainstreamed throughout government: for several years the Fraser of Allander Institute has been pressing for environmental targets to be included across the board, so that they are fully integrated into all policy areas with responsibility shared across all portfolios and all government bodies.
This requires a Net Zero assessment of all new policies: to determine whether a policy is likely to have significant positive or negative impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, you need to roughly estimate the emissions that policy is likely to create. Only with this calculation should projects be approved.
Imminent tests of whether it will prove possible to take real steps forward include the forthcoming Edinburgh Low Emission Zone. While we hope to be wrong in anticipating controversy over the this, we need to learn from experience, and emphasise the accumulating evidence about the close relationship between air pollution and ill health. Initiatives like the LEZ will have real and positive health outcomes which in turn relieve pressure on the NHS. Environmental policies can win broader acceptance if we demonstrate the benefits they bring to the broader community.
This article – published 10 May 2024 - results from email exchanges between Cathie Lloyd, Stuart Fairweather and the editor of the DLS website.