Writing from France, Ronnie Smith on the results of the second round of the country's National Assembly Elections – and subsequent developments in a situation where victory was gripped firmly by the jaws of defeat
As everyone now knows, the cavalry did indeed charge over the hill at the last moment to save the day (click here for my piece published in advance of the second round). The French ‘Far Right’ were emphatically denied the chance to form a government and ended the second round of voting for the French National Assembly on 7 July in third place, behind the centrist block and the Left’s New Popular Front, with regard to number of seats won. Marine Le Pen’s project was thwarted once more.
However, it should be noted that her National Rally (RN) ended the election as by far the largest single unified party. Le Pen's immediate response was to express confidence that her party’s rise to power would continue: ‘The tide is rising. It did not rise high enough this time, but it continues to rise and our victory has simply been deferred’.
No other party or bloc of parties was able to achieve an overall majority of seats and so neither Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc nor the ‘New Popular Front’ were in a position to nominate a Prime Minister and form a government.
Having failed to achieve a majority, the unhappy sitting Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, offered his resignation immediately and was refused by the President on the reasonable grounds that there was no obvious successor. Since then, M. Macron has allowed M. Attal to leave office with his government, but he remains in charge of state administration until a new Prime Minister can be found. How long this will take, no-one really knows.
Neither popular enough, nor, really, a front
Having become the largest bloc in the National Assembly, it fell to the New Popular Front to nominate a Prime Minister. However, there was a problem. The largest party in the New Popular Front is, roughly translated, ‘France Unbound’ led by M. Jean Luc Melanchon with whom no-one on the Left, Right or Centre of French politics wishes to work. M. Melanchon could be said to be a rough-edged Tony Benn who endlessly over-states his case, with many thinking that he is outdated and lacks enough popular support. Perhaps more relevant is that the French version of the ‘Macronist’ corporate state dread him as much as they do a government of the ‘extreme’ Right.
Consequently, the New Popular Front can no longer be thought of as a front. Nor is it popular enough to be capable of forming a government and the search for some kind of unlikely compromise stretches before us into a third week. The latest news, as of 18 July, is that the President is rumoured to favour a ‘reasonable’ member of Les Republicains, the small ‘Gaullist’ conservative party, forming a government of national unity. It’s hard to see how this kind of development might solve the current chaotic situation which may endure until after the Olympic Games in Paris. There is little unity to be found in France these days.
So, what has the President achieved thus far by dissolving the National Assembly on 9 June, apart from providing the French electorate with the opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with him?
He showed the world that the much feared Le Pen project has far less traction in France than many commentators and supporters were claiming. During the campaign, up until the second round of voting, the leaders and candidates of the RN were behaving and speaking as if the RN were certainly going to win a working majority… They did not.
The President also proved that the potentially powerful French Left is as disunited and ineffective as ever, despite collectively winning the election.
What next? The next French Presidential election is scheduled for April 2027, with Le Pen intending to stand – but we can expect plenty of significant developments in the country’s politics before then.
Published 19 July 2024.