Perspectives discussion articles are your chance to share diverse views and angles on current issues. Here, Ronnie Smith discerns a significant pattern which may help us understand the agendas and aims of some of those responsible for the current conflict in Gaza and Lebanon.
In most cases, following world events to understand their evolution, is a matter of being patient. The daily barrage of online predictions and projection is both futile and nerve-shredding. Only having the patience to follow what is actually happening and linking various facts on the ground to build evidence, can provide accurate analysis and comprehensive understanding. This isn’t new.
‘Duck Theory’ is usually the most solid tool – if it sounds like a duck, walks like a duck and looks like a duck… it’s a duck. If we can combine Duck Theory with ‘Follow the Money’ methodology then accurate forecasting of medium-term future outcomes becomes credible, rather than hurried and half-baked blog posts and podcasts.
I’m going to summarise and join some important dots currently swirling around the eastern Mediterranean, place them in an extended chronological order and then suggest a credible evolution of the current crisis.
Dot 1 – Production of Natural Gas
Since around 2009, significant deposits of natural gas have been discovered under the eastern Mediterranean Sea in or close to the territorial waters of Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Cyprus. It was thought that Turkey might also benefit but the Turkish government has decided to focus instead on similarly large discoveries in the Black Sea.
Source – Middle East Institute
All of the countries involved have been working to negotiate a settlement around the all too obvious regional issues in order to prepare the production phase of the gas fields and attract the major international investment needed to design and construct the necessary domestic and export infrastructure: supply pipelines to markets, onshore facilities, offshore extraction systems etc. The resolution of legal issues has been complicated by historical problems such as the non-recognition of Israel by Lebanon, stalling a settlement on gas fields that straddle the countries’ borders.
Of more immediate concern to those who wish to profit from the extraction of natural resources is that the long-standing military/political conflicts that exist along the coast lines of the Hamas-governed Gaza Strip, Israel and Hezbollah-controlled areas of southern Lebanon make the introduction of crucial and substantial outside investment almost impossible to envisage.
Additionally, the consequent delays in developing the eastern Mediterranean gas fields has made the situation in European and US markets more difficult in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and it’s detrimental effects on Russian gas production, supply and pricing.
Dot 2 – Establishing an Economic Infrastructure
The Chartered Cities Institute is a Washington DC based organisation that researches, advises and assists in the establishment of communities specifically designed to facilitate economic growth.
Keeping it simple, Charter Cities exist within existing state borders but create their own legal, commercial and social cultures based on achieving economic success unhindered by national government restrictions. Services, facilities and infrastructures will be financed by private investment and will be operated and administered by private corporations. If we want to see what Charter Cities may look like, we only have to think of what Dubai, Qatar and Abu Dhabi have become in the last 25 years.
The Charter Cities Institute has produced a handbook outlining a bare bones model of how they envisage a Charter City being established and administered in the interests of creating growth out-with the traditional state frameworks and regulatory infrastructures. For more information, you can download the handbook here:
Equally interesting is a world map produced by the Charter Cities Institute identifying locations where Charter Cities could most successfully be established. Find the Charter Cities map here:
For the purposes of this piece, we should note that Gaza City was identified as a potential site for economic development as early as 1975, initially as part of the drive to make the Gaza strip economically viable in its own right. The international community discussed funding the construction of sea and airports in addition to other major infrastructure projects. As we know, none of these things ever happened and were never going to happen once Hamas displaced the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority in Gaza in 2006.
In light of recent events and the need to begin serious production of the natural gas fields, the original mission of what is now the Gaza Charter City may already have been considerably revised.
Dot 3 – Military Action
The whole world knows what happened in Israel on 7 October 2023.
The appalling and unprecedented attack by Hamas on Israel invited a response so brutal, at least equal to Russia’s ruthless, larger-scale invasion of Ukraine, that the international community has become (even more) fractured as a result. Every normal civil society institution in Gaza has been destroyed. There are no hospitals, no schools or universities, no formal infrastructure for the supply of food, water, energy and medicines and no viable residential areas. The territory is now riven with disease and starvation.
I think we can clearly see that Israel’s objective, in its military response to the Hamas’ attack, has been to clear Gaza and with it the coast between the Egyptian and Lebanese borders. Already we see reports of Israel building transport infrastructure and permanent military positions in the Gaza strip. The Israeli government has already made clear that it will take control of all security activities there after the military operation has ended.
Additionally, Israel has also gone part-way to ‘stabilising’ parts of neighbouring Lebanon, notably south Beirut and its shoreline. At the time of writing the recently established cease-fire agreement between Israel, Lebanon and Iran-supported Hezbollah seems to be holding but it remains an extremely fragile proposition.
Dot 4 – The Accumulation of Investment Capital
A question that some have found troubling centres on the lack of support for the people of Gaza and more recently Lebanon from the economic giants among the Arab states. The politics of the Arab world are considered by many to be unfathomable, with their multiplicity of clashing interests and changing alliances. This common perception is down to a general lack of understanding and a high degree of lazy projection applied to the reporting of Middle Eastern issues. However, there are two constants amid the complexity.
Both the main Arab actors in the existential conflict with Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas are supported to a greater or lesser extent by the Islamic Republic of Iran which, being Persian with the vast majority of its population speaking Farsi, is not a member of the Arab world. In addition, the dominant branch of Islam in Iran is Shia. The populations of the Arab Gulf states and Saudi Arabia are predominantly of the Sunni branch of the Muslim faith. Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, they and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia combined with the United Arab Emirates have developed and supported sharply divergent interests, to say the least and this is reflected in their support or lack of it for both Hezbollah and Hamas.
I referred earlier to the economic power, fuelled by oil production and historically strategic trading know-how, of the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia. Their global investment network is perhaps the most extensive in the world and they have huge funds to back it up. The business of the modern day Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. truly is business.
As an example, the UAE are heavily involved in the growing economic development taking place in Rwanda, working with the Rwanda government on investment and operational projects.
In the case of Saudi Arabia, the Public Investment Fund of Saudia Arabia is estimated to have assets of over 925 billion dollars and is clearly one of the richest sovereign wealth funds in the world. The investment opportunities presented by a stable economic environment along the coastline of the Eastern Mediterranean are obvious, but they have not been realisable until now. Why waste those investment opportunities by getting heavily involved in an endless war?
Summary
By applying ‘Duck Theory’ and ‘Follow the Money Methodology’, we can trace the evolution of a narrative that will become more common as the global climate crisis worsens and the Earth’s natural resources, including carbon energy, dry up.
There are large deposits of natural gas under the Eastern Mediterranean. To extract and export the gas from those fields would go a significant way to solving the supply issues that many countries are currently experiencing.
The large-scale investment required to develop the gas fields and build the infrastructure required to deliver the gas to its markets exists but has been slow to materialise. This is because the political/military situation in the region has been extremely unstable for many years and returns on any investment do not seem to be guaranteed; one large terrorist attack, a political impasse or military crisis could close the whole project down at any time.
The greatest threat to the development of the gas fields was perceived to be the very existence of Gaza as governed by Hamas. That threat has now been largely removed and the coastline has been cleared for development from the Egyptian border as far as an area inside Lebanon.
Apart from the facilities required to extract and export the gas, the coastline offers further opportunities for development: commercial, industrial, residential, tourism, transport infrastructure, seaports and airports. We will see how quickly this starts to happen.
And what about the Palestinian Arabs? Will they agree to become the ‘locally-sourced’ labour force?
Published 8 December 2024. This discussion article was received before the overthrow of Assad’s regime in Syria, which adds new dynamics and dimension to the situation in the region.