Rishi Sunak's calling of the UK general election took many by surprise. Many thought he would hold on to the last minute. But, standing in the Downing Street rain, he brought an end to fourteen years of Tory government. We are told by the media and election pundits that his prospects of re-election on July 4th do not look good.
Labour under Keir Starmer say they are ready. But his six pledges and continually stated economic caution do not look likely to set the heather alight. So, over the coming weeks much will need to be done to engender voter enthusiasm. Anas Sarwar is putting a lot of hope in 'change' and bread and butter issues. His plan to constantly restate the same slogan devoid of content appears to constitute Scottish Labour strategy. The right to decide our constitutional future is not up for discussion.
John Swinney, the new First Minister, was quick to find a Scottish angle. The date of the election, we are told, is an insult, given that July 4th is during the school holidays. Important, perhaps. Hopefully there will be bigger issues to address – but voter suppression in all its forms should not be overlooked.
How much does the outcome of a UK election matter to Scotland? Post Brexit, the two main UK parties articulate an Anglo/British understanding of the world that marginalises Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (weirdly, it seems to those of us in one of the (dis)United Kingdom’s ‘other nations’, the continual conflation of England and Britain ignores the question of English democracy too).
For Sunak and the Tories, this means largely forgetting about the Scottish Conservatives and Scotland. For Labour the picture is a bit more complex. They say they need MPs from Scotland even if the arithmetic does not require them. They see the election of loyal Starmer supporters from 'north of the border' as being part of the project of safeguarding the union.
In Scotland on July 4th, 57 seats will be contested. At the 2019 election over 40 seats were won by the SNP. This gave then by far the most and indeed made them the third biggest UK party at Westminster. As stated, we are told it will not be an easy election for Swinney and the SNP. Domestically the First Minister has quickly articulated his desire to focus on economy and the environment. But will this come quick enough for folk to forget the SNP's woes? And what does this mean for independence?
Labour in Scotland are confident. Or at least they are saying they are. There are real issues to be tackled. Industrial policy, health, local government and poverty. Labour's ability to meaningfully address these in a short campaign will be tested. But with these issues and others in the front of people’s minds and UK media coverage saying Labour will win, Labour has a chance. They will end the campaign with more than their current two MPs.
The Liberals in Scotland may be squeezed. They have geographic strongholds, but the boundary changes and limited impact of their UK campaign here will likely make things difficult. Likewise, the Tories current six Scottish seats are in scope. Wise voting could threaten those in the south and in the North East, although competition between parties to appear as the best placed alternative may make things less than simple.
UK wide, as ever, the peculiarities of the First Past the Post system need to be taken into account. This undemocratic voting method militates against the likelihood of Green representatives being elected in numbers which properly express the wishes of the many people who support their policies and see the need for action to address catastrophic climate breakdown as the defining challenge of our times.
Another small party - Reform UK - may do damage to the assumptions of candidates across England.
What will be the makeup of the Scottish contingent of new MPs? What impact will it have on Starmer, if he becomes the new Prime Minister? (We feel it is likely to be a limited impact – though Douglas Alexander may have another view on this).
July will see us with a new government at Westminster. August will see the London-based political class go on holiday. Members and friends of Democratic Left Scotland, small a network as we are, will be looking to connect and work with allies across progressive political parties, in the trade unions, social movements and community networks to get on with the job of building an alternative to ongoing austerity and the ossified democracy of broken Britain.
Published 30 May 2024.