The Scottish Labour Party today will be hoping they can produce similar results against the SNP come a general election. With the Tory vote evaporating, Rutherglen and Hamilton West became a 'two horse race' - and one which Labour’s Michael Shanks has won decisively.
The reality, however, remains that, today and tomorrow, many of the constituents of Westminster's newest MP will still face biting inequality. Anas Sarwar suggests there has been a fundamental change in Scottish politics. He views the world through the prism of his own party's health. Whilst Rutherglen and Hamilton West is a significant win, less people voted for Labour on Thursday 5th October than they did at the 2019 general election. We will be told that by-elections have notoriously low turnouts.
But if people staying at home is an issue for Labour, it is at least as big an issue for the SNP -and it is an even bigger issue for what passes for our democracy. All 14 candidates combined could not get the majority of voters out to vote. The need for photographic identification and the wet weather have been mentioned. But in spite of the massive resources put into campaigning most people stayed home.
Not withstanding this, the result will boost the confidence of Starmer's Labour Party. It will hopefully give the SNP cause for thought. Scotland’s governing party is failing to convince people of a link between challenging the cost of living crisis and independence. Undoubtedly the democratic impasse is making things difficult. But an approach of this kind is essential if the majority of Scots are to be convinced that constitutional change is the route to social change.
The SNP need to be clear about who it is in Scotland that they support? Whose interests they champion? The prospect of independence is worth little if in does not benefit working class people and promote equality.
Will the by-election result be replicated at the much anticipated general election? Rishi Sunak still has us waiting. There are many Scottish seats where Labour is not the challenger but if Labour are heralding this by-election as a 'seismic victory' then the question needs to be asked - who will the coming earthquake impact? The difference after Thursday’s vote is that we now need to ask, what would a Labour victory at Westminster mean for us?
Published 6 October 2023.
Our post earlier this week ...
Much has been said about tomorrow’s by-election. It has been a long-awaited event for those following the prospects of the Scottish Labour Party and the SNP. No doubt all fourteen candidates will be anxious to hear the results on Friday morning. But will make any fundamental difference to the people of Scotland?
Some suggest a Labour victory will signal the party’s wider revival. An SNP win, against the odds, will bolster a faltering government and be drawn upon by some in the independence movement to attempt to confront the impasse. But these immediate outcomes will not address our long-term future.
The results will also be viewed from a Westminster perspective. Keir Starmer and his team see it as a steppingstone to a positive general election result. Symbolism perhaps trumping arithmetic.
Specific details might be of interest to others. How much will the turnout be compared to the 66.5 per cent at the general election? What will happen to the 8,000 people that voted Tory then? How will the Greens, the SSP and TUSC do?
Wherever they live in the country, members and supporters of Democratic Left Scotland will be interested in the results of this particular by-election – but also and more widely interested in where they fit into the bigger jigsaw of rebuilding a politics that moves forward social and environmental justice.
Published 4 October 2023.