Sunak’s decision to call the UK General Election for 4 July has crowded out any significant media coverage there might have been of another very important democratic contest which is fast approaching.
The elections for the European Parliament will be held between June 6-9.
As a result of the UK wide vote for Brexit, Scotland has of course been dragged out of the European Union, and so Scottish voters can play no part in determining the results. But the outcome of these elections will have important consequences for us all – as well as for people in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Broadly assessing the politics of each of the EU’s nation states and its relationship to the politics of the European is key to understanding what happening. A move to the right is expected, reflecting what has already happened in the domestic elections of a number of countries. The strong possibility of Trump becoming the USA President again adds to the risks of a right-wing ascendancy in European politics.
The European Parliament scrutinises the work of the Commission lies, and scrutiny from the right with the focus on immigration as the cause of all problems would be likely to become dominant, rather than scrutiny from the left which could focusing on corporate overreach and on defending what little is left of Jacques Delors’s 1980s project for a strongly “socially”-hued European Union.
The citizens of 27 countries will elect 720 MEPs (15 more than now). At present the outgoing MEPs sit in seven groupings in the 705-seat parliament:
Left 38
Green 71
Social Democrats (S&D) 141
Renew 101
No description (MEPs who are not members of a particular group) 50
Conservative (EPP) 179
Right (ECR) 67
Hard Right (ID) 58
The hope that the Social Democratic, Green and Left European parties could collectively increase their number of MEPs in an enlarged parliament is looking unlikely. Holding on to similar number as now will constitute a 'good result'.
The forces of the radical right group (ECR, which includes the post-fascist Fratelli d’Italia and Spain’s Franco-ist Vox ) and far-right (ID) worryingly look set to gain MEPs.
A working relationship between Social Democrats, mainstream Conservatives (EPP) and the Liberals (Renew) coupled with differences between, and within, the Right and Far-Right may stave off the worst developments. But what such an outcome would mean for the EU's more progressive policies, particularly those on the environment and climate action, waits to be seen.
The personalities of Orbán, Meloni, Le Pen and others will be tested in a post-election landscape that sees gains for the populist and far-right, whilst more traditional Conservatives stand still. The results in the big five - Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland – will of course be particularly important. But the political composition of the MEP groups from Austria, Hungary, Sweden and the Netherlands will go a long way to determining if any realignment of the groupings on the right takes place after the results are announced. Given the likely scenarios, the issue of alliances between the conservatives and the radical right ECR group is being hotly debated.
One of the threats resulting from the radical and far right’s increasing strength is that it feeds into an already worrying trend to slow down action to address the catastrophic climate breakdown which is underway. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has recently watered down some green policies, backtracking on net zero carbon commitments such as ULEZ, and the use of fossil fuels, and passing controversial directives on immigration in exchange for commitments of support from MEPs in the ECR group. Recently, she has appeared to contemplate a more formal arrangement with ECR, by stating conditions for co-operation, which include support for the EU and opposition to Putin’s war in Ukraine.
All this points to the continued importance of the Party of the European Left (EL) and the Left in the European Parliament. The Left's continued campaigning against the far right is essential and requires support. The European Forum bringing together the Left, Social Democrats and Greens is a central forum for finding the approaches which can be effective in countering right-wing populism and developing progressive directions for politics across our continent.
One indication of current intentions was set out by leaders from different social democratic parties last week: ‘while the far right is progressing throughout Europe, we solemnly commit not to give up on our democratic, humanist and united principles’. Key figures from the French Socialists, Dutch Labour Party, Italian Democratic Party and many others undertook to ‘reject any electoral or governmental alliance with far-right parties, at national or European level, and to immediately exclude any formation from our European social democratic family which contravenes this rule’.
Published 27 May 2024