December 4th will see Finance Secretary, Shona Robison, present her budget to the Scottish Parliament. It will constitute the second of three sets of decisions that impact our lives, taken at different levels - Westminster, Holyrood and local government.
Much of what happens in politics today passes people by. But hundreds of thousands of Scots will, before long, be all too aware of the results of Wednesday's Holyrood budget and its significance.
At Holyrood and elsewhere we will hear again and again that 'difficult decisions' need to be made. We won't hear - 'capitalism is not working'.
Earlier this year the Rachel Reeves budget saw a welcome increase to the minimum wage but increases in employers' National Insurance contributions were disguised as a 'good thing'. The attempted deception largely failed as those watching worked out instantly that costs would be passed on to those in work and those struggling to get by.
Many had also noticed Labour’s decisions to stick with the two-child-cap and remove winter fuel payment. At best, this signalled an indifference to those exposed to growing inequality. At worst it was understood as the being of a trend towards demonising the poor, migrants and those in need of welfare support.
Those that subsequently campaigned against the removal of the winter fuel payments, particularly those associated with Unite the Union, should be thanked. Taking the campaign to the streets allowed people to express their views. Many of those drawn to stalls - like the one pictured in Dundee city centre - instinctively articulated that the cut was an attack on pensioners and morally wrong. A smaller number indicated it was only a start: Starmer's Labour Government were testing the water.
This backdrop - and Anas Sarwar's assertion that Scottish Labour would do things differently for pensioners - arguably gave the Scottish Government the impetus to move on the issue of winter fuel prior to the Scottish budget. From winter 2025 a mitigation payment will be put in place. Will a similar impetus now inform what Shona Robison has to say on Wednesday?
The situation is more complex, as a minority SNP government needs the support of others to get its budget agreed. From Scottish Labour, expect lectures on how the £3.4 billion from London should be spent - no sympathy will be shown in relation to the impact of £500 million National Insurance costs or the limitations of devolution.
The Greens have put forward relatively simple tests on free school meals and capped bus fares to secure their support. They additionally want to see continued work on preparing for independence.
The Liberal Democrats, unsurprisingly, take the opposite view on constitutional democracy, and have an extensive set of asks if their 4 MPs are to support the budget.
Whilst getting the budget passed will require political compromises, the SNP MSPs, like all the Holyrood politicians, have one eye on the next Scottish parliamentary election. They need to set out their own stall. Voices from the Tory benches and the media will call on them to move away from the universal provision of services and to reduce the size of the public sector. The Scottish Women’s Budget Group, the STUC and some in the third sector will look for moves in the opposite directions.
Addressing the needs of the workforce, those that respond to inequality in the third sector and maintaining services will be difficult without finding new money. A reluctance to tax the wealthy, that the STUC has pointed to, will leave Robison and Swinney with little room for manoeuvre. With a further increase in the Scottish Child Payment and references to differences to London's approach likely be used as 'fig leaves'.
Where does this leave local government? Scotland's 32 Councils are already consulting on likely cuts. There will be little surprise if the council tax freeze ends. The new year will thus see hurried activity to create a response to the settlement passed on to local government. Ring-fencing for statutory services, under-funded wages costs, and the historically timid approach of councillors does not bode well.
Hard pressed communities will have little option other than to campaign to defend the services and infrastructure that has survived the decade and more of austerity. A politics that offers an alternative to the management of cuts need to be located in resistance to those that continually tell us they can do nothing other than make 'difficult decisions'.
Stuart Fairweather
Published 2 December 2024